Grain Comments for 7-30-10
CORN
-
Corn futures recorded impressive gains as the December corn contract exceeded the magical $4.00 mark. This triggered buy stops. The strength, again, came from a sharply higher wheat market.
-
Funds were heavy buyers during the session. They keep adding to their large net long position. Managed funds now own the most long grain contracts since the first week of the year.
-
Grain traders who want to be long the wheat market but have the fear of wide price swings have moved into the corn market. If the wheat market decides to sell off, the corn market will follow, as the investment crowd will exit in large quantities, all the grains.
-
News for the corn market is limited. Grain reporters focus on the wheat market where the excitement is. .
-
The weather remains favorable in the Corn Belt for the fall crops. The Delta Region could use a drink but the Midwest has decent moisture in the forecast.
-
Producers should consider adding to your forward coverage in the corn and sorghum. Forward price in increments compared to your total production. If you have not done any pricing, now is a good time to start.
WHEAT
-
Wheat futures opened higher and then rallied. At one time, wheat futures posted gains at half of the limit move for the day. The bullish news keeps rolling in. The investment crowd remains active on the buy side.
-
The wheat price posted the best monthly gain since the rally during the first part of 2008. Since the low made at the end of last month, the September Kansas City wheat contract gained $1.95 ¾. The best harvest time rally in years, maybe even a record.
-
Estimates for Russia wheat production is at 45 million metric tons. Their last year’s wheat production totaled 61.7 million metric tons.
-
United States and France offers for wheat are now running $5 to $6 per metric above Russian wheat offers. This is the closest the price has been in a couple of years.
-
The heat and dryness continues in the Black Sea Region. Moscow, Russia reported its first 100 degree ever.
-
This is a supply driven rally. So far, demand has not improved but we need to keep a close eye on the weekly export sales reports. This week’s number was strong.
-
The most common asked question is how high will the wheat travel? The momentum is up and strong. The trade will keep a watchful eye on the Paris wheat futures. The answer to the question, no one knows, but many will take a shot but their do not produce wheat. Wheat producers should start a hedging program for next year. Start small but start. Be prepared to add if the price works higher.
|